Why You Can't Predict Church Growth, But You Can Predict Church Failure (And, Thankfully, Church Health)

Church growth is a mystery. Church failure is predictable. Church health is what really matters.

Everyone wants the sure thing.

If we just learn the right principles, follow the latest How To Grow Your Church list, or (my favorite) “do it like the early church”, then Boom! Our church is guaranteed numerical success.

I wish.

Here’s the reality behind church growth.

You can predict church failure. Do enough of the wrong things (or not enough of the right things) and almost anyone can predict that a church body is doomed.

But you can’t predict church growth.

You can remove the obstacles to growth. You can put in systems that will help you be ready for growth. You can pray for growth, work for growth, preach about growth, evangelize for growth....

But none of that makes numerical church growth guaranteed or predictable. Read More