Small Gatherings Spread the Virus, but Are They Causing the Surge

Yes, the coronavirus can be transmitted over cocktails and dinners. But these get-togethers may not account for the huge rise in cases.

As states struggle to contain the resurgent coronavirus, many officials are laying the blame on an unexpected source: people gathering with family and friends.

Household get-togethers undoubtedly do contribute to community transmission of the virus. Canada’s recent Thanksgiving certainly added to its rising cases; such an increase may happen here, too, as the United States embarks on a holiday season like no other. That’s why the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday warned so strongly against gathering with others outside the household during Thanksgiving.

But are dinners and backyard barbecues really the engine driving the current surge of infections? The available data do not support that contention, scientists say. Still, the idea has been repeated so often it has become conventional wisdom, leading to significant restrictions in many states. Read More

While family and small gatherings play a role in the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus (and we downplay that role at our own risk), do they account for the spikes around the country? This article asks that question and draws attention to the fact that while state and local health authorities are documenting the number of infections within their jurisdictions, they are not documenting the sources of these infections. When I did some research into the main sources of infections in my county, I learned that they were attributed to family and small gatherings. Earlier in the week the head of President Trump's COVID-19 task force had made a public statement in which she attributed the increasing rates of infections to family and small gatherings. It struck me at the time that the local health authorities were repeating Dr. Birx's explanation. Earlier reports pointed to the re-opening of restaurants and bars. A significant number of people in the county were also not following state and local safety guidelines. This continues to be the case. I think that it important for state and local health authorities to pinpoint the major sources of infection within their jurisdictions. It will help them to take more effective measures to contain the virus and mitigate its effects

In World War II the whole nation was mobilized to support the war effort. Everybody was expected to "do their bit." Individuals who were not making a contribution to the war effort were labeled as "slackers" and considerable social pressure was placed on them to join the war effort. In the effort to combat the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, members of a community who refuse to comply with state and local safety guidelines are today's "slackers" If it is determined that they are a major source of infection in the community, social pressure might be brought to bear upon them much in the same way that it was placed on "slackers' during World War II. This might prove a far more effective way of securing compliance with safety guidelines than mandates and fines.